Perspectives for Growth and Income Equality in the European MonetataryUnion:2012-2025

Using national accounts data obtained from the United Nations Statistical data base, GDP by expenditure was projected to the year 2025 for each of the countries belonging to the Eurozone (excluding Estonia and Slovakia) and added to get a total for the group. The projections were based on the trends that were prevailing from 1995 to 2011 in each of the countries assuming there would be a recovery from the recessionary period of 2008 to 2009 and a return to the trend. Per capita GDP projections were obtained by dividing the projected GDP by the population projections produced by the United Nations Population Division. A projection of the labor force for each country was obtained by extrapolating the labor participation rates given by the ILO and applying them to the projected population. Unemployment was then projected to the year 2025 and consequently the unemployment rate for each year in the projected period was estimated. Income distribution and inequality was captured through the use of income share by quintile of population data available for each of the countries. The per capita GDP of the poorest and richest quintiles was projected to 2025.