This article proposes a stochastic nonlinear model predictive controller to support policymakers in determining robust optimal nonpharmaceutical strategies to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic waves. First, a time-varying SIRCQTHE epidemiological model is defined to get predictions on the pandemic dynamics. A stochastic model predictive control problem is then formulated to select the necessary control actions (i.e., restrictions on the mobility for different socioeconomic categories) to minimize the socioeconomic costs. In particular, considering the uncertainty characterizing this decision-making process, we ensure that the capacity of the healthcare system is not violated in accordance with a chance constraint approach. The effectiveness of the presented method in properly supporting the definition of diversified nonpharmaceutical strategies for tackling the COVID-19 spread is tested on the network of Italian regions using real data. The proposed approach can be easily extended to cope with other countries' characteristics and different levels of the spatial scale.

Nonpharmaceutical Stochastic Optimal Control Strategies to Mitigate the COVID-19 Spread

Epicoco N.;
2021-01-01

Abstract

This article proposes a stochastic nonlinear model predictive controller to support policymakers in determining robust optimal nonpharmaceutical strategies to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic waves. First, a time-varying SIRCQTHE epidemiological model is defined to get predictions on the pandemic dynamics. A stochastic model predictive control problem is then formulated to select the necessary control actions (i.e., restrictions on the mobility for different socioeconomic categories) to minimize the socioeconomic costs. In particular, considering the uncertainty characterizing this decision-making process, we ensure that the capacity of the healthcare system is not violated in accordance with a chance constraint approach. The effectiveness of the presented method in properly supporting the definition of diversified nonpharmaceutical strategies for tackling the COVID-19 spread is tested on the network of Italian regions using real data. The proposed approach can be easily extended to cope with other countries' characteristics and different levels of the spatial scale.
2021
COVID-19
COVID-19
Data models
epidemic control
Medical services
mitigation strategies
pandemic modeling
Pandemics
Predictive models
stochastic model predictive control (MPC)
Stochastic processes
Uncertainty
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12572/13109
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
social impact