n this paper, we project the national accounts GDP by expenditure for the top 20 exporting countries. That is the 20 countries which rank highest in their share of the total world exports for the year 2022. We project in two ways; first based on its recent past (2010 to 2021) using a Harrod-Domar production function for each country and extrapolating its GDP to 2025. Demand equations for private consumption and total imports as a function of GDP are estimated to project those components (see Table A1). Government and Gross Capital Formation are treated as exogenous and are based on the sum of the component from 2015 to 2021 divided by the sum of GDP over the same period. Exports are then derived by using the national accounts identity. These are called the Pre-Linked Estimates. The data come from the United Nations Statistical office and are in constant 2015 U.S. dollars. The second way we project these 20 countries is by linking them to a world trade matrix, thereby, adjusting the exports to their import demand. These are called the Post-Linked Estimates. The data for the trade matrix also comes from the United Nations Statistical office, and while this series has been updated to 2022, the national accounts data ends in 2021.
Trade and Growth in the World Economy
Costantiello, Alberto
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2023-01-01
Abstract
n this paper, we project the national accounts GDP by expenditure for the top 20 exporting countries. That is the 20 countries which rank highest in their share of the total world exports for the year 2022. We project in two ways; first based on its recent past (2010 to 2021) using a Harrod-Domar production function for each country and extrapolating its GDP to 2025. Demand equations for private consumption and total imports as a function of GDP are estimated to project those components (see Table A1). Government and Gross Capital Formation are treated as exogenous and are based on the sum of the component from 2015 to 2021 divided by the sum of GDP over the same period. Exports are then derived by using the national accounts identity. These are called the Pre-Linked Estimates. The data come from the United Nations Statistical office and are in constant 2015 U.S. dollars. The second way we project these 20 countries is by linking them to a world trade matrix, thereby, adjusting the exports to their import demand. These are called the Post-Linked Estimates. The data for the trade matrix also comes from the United Nations Statistical office, and while this series has been updated to 2022, the national accounts data ends in 2021.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
