What happens in the Global Economy if the United States reduces its share of Imports in GDP

The United States imports more than any other country in the world, the last final estimate (2023) is $3168,471 (millions). In the same year, China imported $2556,363 (millions) and Germany $1469,329 (millions). These three countries are by far the largest importers in the world and their imports come mainly from each other, but also from the rest of the world. As a share of GDP, the U.S. imports in 2023 were 15.9 %, while the export share in GDP was 11.3 %. Hence the U.S. trade balance was −4.6 % of GDP. This was not always the case in the U.S., in the 1950s and early 1960s the trade balance in the U.S. was always close to 0. However, as the 1970s rolled in both Japan and Germany regained their prominence in world trade and the U.S. was their major trading partner for manufacturers. In the 1980s a strong dollar and an American taste for Japanese and German automobiles triggered an influx of cars from these two countries and the U.S. suddenly became the world’s largest debtor country. In this paper we look at a deliberate policy to reduce the import share of GDP to about 11 %. This is a macroeconomic exercise done in real 2015 dollars. Hence it does not indicate anything about price movements, but it gives insight into what happens on a global scale when the largest importer reduces its imports share in GDP.